The Spread CFB

History & Accuracy

2026 (current)
91-9SU (91.0%)
62-36-2ATS (63.3%)
100 games decided

Calibration — predicted probability vs. actual win rate

Accuracy by confidence bucket
SegmentNSU%
55-60%366.7%
60-65%666.7%
65-70%450.0%
70-75%683.3%
75-80%887.5%
80-85%3797.3%
85-90%8100.0%
90-95%10100.0%
95-100%1894.4%
By favorite vs. underdog pick
SegmentNSU%ATS%
Picked the favorite9990.9%62.9%
Picked the underdog1100.0%100.0%
By home / away / neutral
SegmentNSU%ATS%
Neutral site475.0%25.0%
Picked home team9192.3%64.4%
Picked away team580.0%75.0%
By conference (picked team)
SegmentNSU%ATS%
Big Ten1894.4%52.9%
SEC16100.0%62.5%
Big 121485.7%50.0%
ACC1291.7%72.7%
Sun Belt10100.0%80.0%
American Athletic887.5%62.5%
Mountain West785.7%71.4%
Mid-American560.0%40.0%
Conference USA5100.0%100.0%
Pac-12366.7%33.3%
FBS Independents2100.0%100.0%
Week-by-week log
Week 2SU 91-9 · ATS 62-36
Florida A&M @ Miamipicked Miami (91%) Miami 77-7 Florida A&M
Week 1SU 90-9 · ATS 61-36
North Carolina @ TCUpicked TCU (64%) TCU 10-15 North Carolina
San José State @ USCpicked USC (99%) USC 42-26 San José State
NC State @ Virginiapicked Virginia (69%) Virginia 34-8 NC State
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota Statepicked North Dakota State (73%) North Dakota State 33-7 Jacksonville State
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michiganpicked Eastern Michigan (71%) Eastern Michigan 28-17 Sacramento State
New Mexico State @ Florida Statepicked Florida State (97%) Florida State 34-17 New Mexico State
Hawai'i @ Stanfordpicked Stanford (65%) Stanford 37-27 Hawai'i
Memphis @ UNLVpicked UNLV (61%) UNLV 21-27 Memphis
Massachusetts @ Rutgerspicked Rutgers (97%) Rutgers 21-37 Massachusetts
West Georgia @ Kennesaw Statepicked Kennesaw State (80%) Kennesaw State 47-0 West Georgia
UAlbany @ Buffalopicked Buffalo (78%) Buffalo 21-17 UAlbany
Merrimack @ Delawarepicked Delaware (83%) Delaware 42-7 Merrimack
Bethune-Cookman @ UCFpicked UCF (91%) UCF 73-6 Bethune-Cookman
Akron @ Wake Forestpicked Wake Forest (96%) Wake Forest 38-16 Akron
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouripicked Missouri (84%) Missouri 54-14 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Colorado @ Georgia Techpicked Georgia Tech (65%) Georgia Tech 13-14 Colorado
Eastern Illinois @ Minnesotapicked Minnesota (84%) Minnesota 59-7 Eastern Illinois
UAB @ Illinoispicked Illinois (95%) Illinois 42-23 UAB
Idaho @ Utahpicked Utah (83%) Utah 66-14 Idaho
San José State @ Eastern Michiganpicked Eastern Michigan (65%) Eastern Michigan 21-27 San José State
North Carolina A&T @ Georgia Statepicked Georgia State (82%) Georgia State 59-10 North Carolina A&T
Indiana State @ Purduepicked Purdue (91%) Purdue 44-19 Indiana State
UTEP @ Oklahomapicked Oklahoma (99%) Oklahoma 51-0 UTEP
Toledo @ Michigan Statepicked Michigan State (81%) Michigan State 30-20 Toledo
Long Island University @ Kansaspicked Kansas (84%) Kansas 51-6 Long Island University
Miami @ Stanfordpicked Miami (95%) Stanford 6-45 Miami
Fresno State @ USCpicked USC (95%) USC 39-0 Fresno State
Oregon State @ Houstonpicked Houston (91%) Houston 33-20 Oregon State
Lafayette @ UConnpicked UConn (80%) UConn 56-7 Lafayette
Liberty @ James Madisonpicked James Madison (71%) James Madison 20-13 Liberty
North Texas @ Indianapicked Indiana (99%) Indiana 52-16 North Texas
East Carolina @ Alabamapicked Alabama (97%) Alabama 48-10 East Carolina
Ohio @ Nebraskapicked Nebraska (96%) Nebraska 49-21 Ohio
Tarleton State @ Bowling Greenpicked Bowling Green (58%) Bowling Green 13-20 Tarleton State
Coastal Carolina @ West Virginiapicked West Virginia (86%) West Virginia 31-24 Coastal Carolina
New Hampshire @ Syracusepicked Syracuse (83%) Syracuse 66-3 New Hampshire
Bryant @ Armypicked Army (83%) Army 59-3 Bryant
Ball State @ Ohio Statepicked Ohio State (100%) Ohio State 56-3 Ball State
Miami (OH) @ Pittsburghpicked Pittsburgh (90%) Pittsburgh 59-14 Miami (OH)
Kent State @ South Carolinapicked South Carolina (99%) South Carolina 57-0 Kent State
Duquesne @ Air Forcepicked Air Force (82%) Air Force 34-0 Duquesne
Youngstown State @ Kentuckypicked Kentucky (85%) Kentucky 45-13 Youngstown State
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa Statepicked Iowa State (87%) Iowa State 38-10 Southeast Missouri State
Rhode Island @ Templepicked Temple (75%) Temple 38-14 Rhode Island
Tennessee State @ Georgiapicked Georgia (84%) Georgia 63-3 Tennessee State
Marshall @ Penn Statepicked Penn State (95%) Penn State 45-0 Marshall
Texas State @ Texaspicked Texas (97%) Texas 59-7 Texas State
Baylor @ Auburnpicked Auburn (59%) Auburn 17-16 Baylor
The Citadel @ Charlottepicked Charlotte (79%) Charlotte 41-43 The Citadel
Towson @ Navypicked Navy (83%) Navy 42-15 Towson
Tulane @ Dukepicked Duke (82%) Duke 17-3 Tulane
Boston College @ Cincinnatipicked Cincinnati (79%) Cincinnati 34-15 Boston College
Maine @ App Statepicked App State (79%) App State 55-3 Maine
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSApicked UTSA (82%) UTSA 45-16 UT Rio Grande Valley
Boise State @ Oregonpicked Oregon (94%) Oregon 34-27 Boise State
Furman @ Tennesseepicked Tennessee (84%) Tennessee 56-9 Furman
Fordham @ North Dakota Statepicked North Dakota State (84%) North Dakota State 38-0 Fordham
Oklahoma State @ Tulsapicked Oklahoma State (71%) Tulsa 24-10 Oklahoma State
Northern Illinois @ Iowapicked Iowa (98%) Iowa 40-0 Northern Illinois
North Alabama @ Arkansaspicked Arkansas (84%) Arkansas 31-14 North Alabama
Alcorn State @ Southern Misspicked Southern Miss (83%) Southern Miss 49-3 Alcorn State
Norfolk State @ Old Dominionpicked Old Dominion (84%) Old Dominion 31-10 Norfolk State
Wyoming @ Colorado Statepicked Colorado State (67%) Colorado State 35-13 Wyoming
Houston Christian @ Ricepicked Rice (80%) Rice 31-3 Houston Christian
Idaho State @ Utah Statepicked Utah State (83%) Utah State 17-29 Idaho State
Arkansas State @ Memphispicked Memphis (84%) Memphis 42-24 Arkansas State
Murray State @ Middle Tennesseepicked Middle Tennessee (84%) Middle Tennessee 38-14 Murray State
Florida International @ South Floridapicked South Florida (85%) South Florida 19-9 Florida International
Abilene Christian @ Texas Techpicked Texas Tech (84%) Texas Tech 33-10 Abilene Christian
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville Statepicked Jacksonville State (80%) Jacksonville State 49-7 Eastern Kentucky
Nicholls @ Kansas Statepicked Kansas State (89%) Kansas State 71-3 Nicholls
Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southernpicked Georgia Southern (82%) Georgia Southern 31-0 Charleston Southern
SE Louisiana @ South Alabamapicked South Alabama (77%) South Alabama 39-14 SE Louisiana
Sam Houston @ Troypicked Troy (86%) Troy 24-21 Sam Houston
Missouri State @ Texas A&Mpicked Texas A&M (99%) Texas A&M 50-0 Missouri State
Austin Peay @ Vanderbiltpicked Vanderbilt (82%) Vanderbilt 28-9 Austin Peay
VMI @ Virginia Techpicked Virginia Tech (84%) Virginia Tech 73-3 VMI
Clemson @ LSUpicked LSU (84%) LSU 51-10 Clemson
UL Monroe @ Mississippi Statepicked Mississippi State (98%) Mississippi State 62-13 UL Monroe
Northwestern State @ Louisiana Techpicked Louisiana Tech (88%) Louisiana Tech 80-6 Northwestern State
Western Michigan @ Michiganpicked Michigan (96%) Michigan 13-12 Western Michigan
Florida Atlantic @ Floridapicked Florida (96%) Florida 66-21 Florida Atlantic
Hampton @ Marylandpicked Maryland (84%) Maryland 62-0 Hampton
Utah Tech @ BYUpicked BYU (88%) BYU 63-7 Utah Tech
South Dakota State @ Northwesternpicked Northwestern (75%) Northwestern 34-18 South Dakota State
Lamar @ Louisianapicked Louisiana (79%) Louisiana 38-7 Lamar
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico Statepicked New Mexico State (82%) New Mexico State 51-14 Mercyhurst
Northern Arizona @ Arizonapicked Arizona (86%) Arizona 35-7 Northern Arizona
Portland State @ San Diego Statepicked San Diego State (84%) San Diego State 53-20 Portland State
Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento Statepicked Sacramento State (83%) Sacramento State 52-0 Mississippi Valley State
UNLV @ Hawai'ipicked UNLV (64%) Hawai'i 6-21 UNLV
Central Michigan @ New Mexicopicked New Mexico (86%) New Mexico 38-7 Central Michigan
Morgan State @ Arizona Statepicked Arizona State (84%) Arizona State 70-7 Morgan State
Western Kentucky @ Nevadapicked Nevada (57%) Nevada 49-14 Western Kentucky
UCLA @ Californiapicked UCLA (62%) California 24-45 UCLA
Washington State @ Washingtonpicked Washington (93%) Washington 24-10 Washington State
Louisville @ Ole Misspicked Ole Miss (70%) Ole Miss 41-38 Louisville
Wisconsin @ Notre Damepicked Notre Dame (95%) Notre Dame 41-13 Wisconsin
SMU @ Florida Statepicked SMU (61%) Florida State 24-27 SMU